State Government

Will the Election Tidal Rave Roll, or Ripple, Over Raleigh?

By Steve Tuttle

The biggest turnover in the General Assembly in at least a generation — 52 of the 170 members or about 31 percent of the House and Senate will be new — undoubtedly will change the tone of the political discourse in Raleigh and the topics of debate. But less certain is what specific impact the elections will have on the outcome of legislation moving through the General Assembly. Here’s our assessment of what you can expect from the General Assembly next year:

The House was badly split before and it will be again when the General Assembly reconvenes on Jan. 29. Although the 120-member House will have 36 new faces, the political balance is largely the same – 61-59 Republican now vs. 62-58 Democratic before. Just like last session, getting legislation through the House will require coalition building. Small numbers of like-minded House members will wield enormous power.

It’s not a sure bet that the Republicans will be able to keep all their members in camp to elect a Speaker. Sharp divisions were evident at the recent House Republican Caucus meeting in Greensboro, where Leo Daughtry of Smithfield, the current House minority leader and former gubernatorial candidate, received 36 votes for Speaker and Connie Wilson of Charlotte received 20 votes. Rep. Richard Morgan (R-Moore), who openly criticizes Daughtry, also is seeking the post. And political observers aren’t dismissing claims by Democrat Jim Black that he can peel off enough moderate Republicans to keep the gavel he’s held for the past three sessions.

A darkhorse among Republicans for Speaker is Charlotte businessman Ed McMahan, who has two advantages: he has friends on both sides of the aisle plus he doled out $98,000 in campaign contributions to GOP candidates during the campaign.  Also, Republican Rep. Danny McComas’ name surfaced in newspaper stories as a candidate for Speaker. His attraction is that, coming from Hispanic heritage, he could be a compromise leader. Bottom line: so many people are trying to cut so many deals that we probably won’t know who will be Speaker until the showdown vote on the first day of the session.

The Senate was strongly Democratic before and will be again. Although President Pro Tem Marc Basnight won’t have the bullet-proof numbers he had before, when the chamber was split 35-15, he will still have a solid majority at 28-22. Basnight will have to be more accommodating to Republican views and to the wishes of some Democrats who have chafed under his iron-fisted rule. But Basnight still should be able to push his agenda. Minority Leader Patrick Ballantine of Wilmington claims he has three or four Democrats ready to defect and help elect him President Pro Tem, but observers we talked to said they would be shocked if Basnight is toppled.

In the Governor’s Mansion: Gov. Mike Easley had an uneasy relationship with legislative Democrats before the election and is in no better shape now. He was largely silent during the election and did surprisingly little campaigning for Democratic candidates for the legislature. Many old hands around Raleigh are still scratching their heads over the fact that Erskine Bowles, during his concession speech, thanked a long list of Democrats for their help in his U.S. Senate campaign but didn’t mention the sitting governor of his own party.

With another tight budget and a Republican House majority, Easley will have a harder time pushing new spending on his More at Four pre-kindergarten program for at-risk 4-year-olds. However, many expect that Easley will continue advocating increased spending on education, if for no other reason that to differentiate himself from Republicans and to begin building his re-election platform.

With the gubernatorial campaigns now getting under way for the 2004 elections, it will be interesting to see how Easley interacts with the General Assembly and how he shapes his public image during the second half of his term. Observers expect he will guard his right flank from attacks by Republicans eyeing the office such as  Richard Vinroot, Chuck Neely and possibly Cong. Richard Burr. Raleigh attorney Jim Cain, who recently resigned as president of the Carolina Hurricanes hockey team, said he’s thinking of running against Easley. But the intriguing possibility being quietly posed around Raleigh is whether Easley might face a challenge from within the Democratic Party. Given his tenuous ties with some Democratic leaders and non-existent ties with party stalwarts at the precinct level, insiders say they wouldn’t be shocked if Easley faced a primary opponent.

Republicans to watch: The Republican House Caucus failed to rally around a single candidate for Speaker but it did choose other leaders who will play leading roles in the coming session. Joanne Bowie of Greensboro, back for an eighth term, was nominated for speaker pro tem. Former Lincoln County sheriff Joe Kiser, starting his fifth term, will be House majority leader, a prime post he apparently will keep even if Daughtry doesn’t prevail as Speaker. Trudi Walend of Brevard will be House Republican whip. Ed McMahan of Charlotte and Harold Brubaker of Asheboro, who was Speaker the last time Republicans had the majority, could be the kingmakers. In the Senate, Patrick Ballantine of Wilmington will continue as minority leader. Gaston County’s Jim Forrester, beginning his eighth term, will be deputy minority leader, and Fern Shubert of Marshville, who moves over after three terms in the House, will be minority whip.

Democrats to watch: If he pulls together a coalition of Republicans and Democrats, Jim Black of Matthews will remain Speaker. If he doesn’t he likely will be minority leader. Joe Hackney of Chapel Hill, Speaker Pro Tem last time, probably will remain second banana to Black. Many other House leaders will be conspicuous by their absence. Gone are Majority Leader Phil Baddour of Goldsboro, Appropriations Committee Co-chair David Redwine of Ocean Isle Beach and Majority Whip Andy Dedmon of Earl. They lost their re-election races. That leaves the scene open for new players to take the House stage, including returning veterans Martha Alexander, Gordon Allen, Jim Crawford, Bill Culpepper, Pete Cunningham, Paul Luebke, Mickey Michaux, Edd Nye and Bill Owens.

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